Scotland’s Economic Future Post-2014

Remit

“An inquiry into Scotland’s potential economic future – whether there is a yes or no vote - following the Independence Referendum on 18 September 2014.”

Background

In May 2011, the First Minister informed the Scottish Parliament of the Scottish Government’s intention to hold a referendum on Scottish independence and, following inter-governmental discussions with the UK Government, the Edinburgh Agreement was signed in October 2012, paving the way for a referendum.

In March 2013, two bills were introduced in the Scottish Parliament setting out details of how and when the referendum would take place, with 18 September 2014 announced as the date of the vote.

On 26 November 2013, the Scottish Government published its White Paper entitled Scotland’s Future – Your Guide to an Independent Scotland. This sets out its proposition for the electorate and the vote on Scottish Independence scheduled for next year.

The implications of the two possible outcomes of the vote – a yes or no – on Scotland’s economic future are at the very core of the current referendum debate. Issues such as the macroeconomic framework, fiscal and monetary policy, the framework for business, the choice of a currency, the regulatory and institutional structures etc. will all be at the centre of discussions in the run up to September 2014. What might happen in the event of a yes or no vote in terms of Scotland’s economic future will undoubtedly dominate the debate in the months ahead.

This inquiry sought the views of organisations and individuals from across Scotland and beyond on the economic issues raised as part of that debate.

The Committee’s inquiry has now concluded and the Convener has written to those who contributed to it, thanking them for working with the Committee through the submission of written evidence and the giving of oral evidence.

• Convener's Thank You Letter (138KB pdf)

Timetable

The Committee issued a call for evidence (185KB pdf) on Wednesday 11 December 2013 which closed on 31 January 2014.  The Committee took oral evidence from February - June 2014.

Committee news release on witnesses

The Official Report for each evidence session is available here

Read the written submissions here

Evidence

The Committee issued a call for evidence (185KB pdf) on Wednesday 11 December 2013 which closed on 31 January 2014.  The Committee took oral evidence from February - June 2014.

Committee news release on witnesses

The Official Report for each evidence session is available here

Read the written submissions here

Evidence heard:

19 February 2014: UK and Scottish governments (617KB pdf)

Witnesses:

Rt Hon Danny Alexander MP, Chief Secretary to the Treasury

Nicola Sturgeon MSP, Deputy First Minister

John Swinney MSP, Cabinet Secretary for Finance, Employment and Sustainable Growth

Watch the evidence session here

• Associated written evidence (95KB pdf)

26 February 2014: Business people (610KB pdf)

Witnesses:

Rupert Soames, Aggreko

Norman Springford, Apex Hotels

Robert D. Kilgour, Dow Investments and Renaissance Care Scotland

Jim McColl, Clyde Blowers

Marie Macklin, Klin Group

Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, Business for Scotland

Dan Macdonald, MacDonald Estates

Ben Thomson, Inverleith LLP

Hugh Andrew, Birlinn Press

Ann-Maree Morrison, Labels4Kids Ltd

Dr Margaret Anne Craig, Clyde Biosciences

Watch the evidence session here

• Associated written evidence (263KB pdf)

5 March 2014: Economic think tanks, academics & Fiscal Commission Working Group (650KB pdf)    

Witnesses:

Panel 1

Paul Johnson, Institute of Fiscal Studies

Professor Jo Armstrong, Centre for Public Policy for Regions

Dr Angus Armstrong, National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Panel 2: Fiscal Commission Working Group

Crawford Beveridge, Chair

Professor Andrew Hughes-Hallett

Panel 3

Professor David Bell, University of Stirling

Professor David Simpson

Professor Charlie Jeffery, University of Edinburgh and ESRC

Watch the evidence session here

• Associated written evidence (95KB pdf)

12 March 2014: Monetary policy (433KB pdf)  

Witnesses:  

Sir John Gieve, Visiting Professor at University College, London

Professor Ronald MacDonald, University of Glasgow

Dr Monique Ebell, National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Professor Anton Muscatelli

Professor Jeremy Peat, David Hume Institute

Watch the evidence session here

• Associated written evidence (40KB pdf)

19 March 2014: Taxation, spending, borrowing, debt (508KB pdf) 

Witnesses:

Michael Clancy, Law Society of Scotland

Elspeth Orcharton, Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland

Moira Kelly, Chartered Institute of Taxation 

David Glen, Partner and Head of Tax Scotland, PwC LLP

Watch the evidence session here 

• Associated written evidence (95KB pdf)  

2 April 2014: Economic sectors, regulation, trade, labour markets

Witnesses:

Iain McMillan, CBI Scotland

Owen Kelly, Scottish Financial Enterprise

Ian McKay, Institute of Directors

Colin Borland, FSB Scotland

Garry Clark, Scottish Chambers of Commerce

Stephen Boyd, STUC

Robin McAlpine, Jimmy Reid Foundation

Professor Mike Danson, Heriot-Watt University

Watch the evidence session here

• Associated written evidence (73KB pdf)

23 April 2014: Welfare and equality 

Witnesses:

Panel 1

Peter Kelly, Poverty Alliance        

Dr Katherine Trebeck, Oxfam

Bill Scott, Inclusion Scotland

Panel 2

Dr Jim McCormick, Joseph Rowntree Foundation       

David Eiser, University of Stirling

Morag Gillespie, Glasgow Caledonian University

Watch the evidence session here

• Associated written evidence (146KB pdf)

28 April 2014 (Aberdeen): Energy: oil and gas

Witnesses:

        Mike Tholen, Oil and Gas UK

        Professor Alex Kemp, University of Aberdeen

        Penelope Warne, Head of Energy, CMS Cameron McKenna

Listen to the evidence session here

• Associated written evidence (43KB pdf)

30 April 2014: Energy: Renewables

Witnesses:

        Dr Nicola McEwen, University of Edinburgh

        Dr David Toke, Aberdeen University

        Martin McAdam, Aquamarine Power

        Eric Machiels, Chief Executive, Infinis

Watch the evidence session here

• Associated written evidence (462KB pdf)

7 May 2014: International lessons from abroad and civic Scotland

Witnesses:

International lessons from abroad

        Dr Mary Hilson, University College London

        Professor Michael Keating, University of Aberdeen

        Professor Ailsa Henderson, University of Edinburgh

        John Nugée, Chatham House

Civic Scotland

        Kyle Thornton MSYP, Chair, Scottish Youth Parliament

        Danny Boyle, BEMIS

        John Downie, SCVO

Watch the evidence session here

• Associated written evidence (281KB pdf) 

21 May 2014: Campaign groups

Witnesses:

Better Together

Rt Hon Alistair Darling MP, Chair

Blair McDougall, Campaign Director

Yes Scotland

Blair Jenkins, Chief Executive

Dennis Canavan, Chair

Watch the evidence session here

• Associated written evidence (84KB pdf)

11 June 2014: UK and Scottish Governments

Witnesses:

UK Government

Rt Hon Danny Alexander MP, Chief Secretary to the Treasury

Rt Hon Alistair Carmichael MP, Secretary of State for Scotland

Scottish Government

Nicola Sturgeon MSP, Deputy First Minister

John Swinney MSP, Cabinet Secretary for Finance, Employment and Sustainable Growth

Watch the evidence session here

• Associated written evidence (239KB pdf)