Yesterday, David Bell and I were at a Resolution Foundation event on trends in the Scottish labour market. The Cabinet Secretary for Fair Work, Skills and Training was speaking on that very issue, so I am sure that it will be debated in the Scottish Parliament very soon.
The Scotland Bill, as amended by the House of Lords, is clear about which programmes and why. It does not talk about resource levels because that depends on the point at which you cash out the settlement and then index it. It just so happens that there has been a major reduction in the attached budget; it is possible that that will also happen with other budget lines in the future.
It is important to keep hold of David Bell’s point about the intended eligible population. A work programme is going to be blended into a much broader health and employability support programme that will be run generically through Jobcentre Plus, as I understand it. There might therefore be a way of calculating Scotland’s broad share of support for the eligible population. The figure might be a bit bigger than the figures that were announced in the autumn statement.
This is not about views on the merits or otherwise of the work programme and work choice. The issue that is relevant to this discussion is that, based on international evidence, high-performing welfare-to-work programmes can help to improve employment rates and work incentives, especially where the labour market is improving. That, in turn, can help income tax revenues and other consequences. Therefore, this is not simply about the budget to be devolved; it is also about the knock-on effect for parts of Scotland with less strong labour market areas and what the offer can therefore be.
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There is also a consequence in Scotland for how we rationalise and improve the effectiveness of existing employability programmes that are run locally for various client groups.
Nonetheless, we need a sharper focus on our existing powers and budgets and on how effectively they are being deployed. That is a separate but important consequence of the decision.