Let us never forget that, on 23 June 2016, Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the European Union. Every unpalatable consequence that arises from Brexit does so, therefore, as a result of the United Kingdom Government defying and denying that democratic decision. Leaving the EU—just 100 days from tomorrow—with no deal in place would be the worst such consequence imaginable.
A no-deal exit from the EU would have severe impacts on Scotland and result in irreparable damage to our economy, our people and our society. We know that and are compelled to say so. Our neighbours, like Ireland, know that and have been saying so for a long time. Now the entire EU27 knows that and will be saying so tomorrow. Even the UK Government knows that to be true, as it acknowledged at its Cabinet meeting today.
What a tragedy—what a scandal—it is that Tory members of this Parliament will still not condemn their reckless colleagues who are, carelessly or willingly, taking their fellow citizens to the brink of disaster. They will neither join the rest of us in finding a sensible way to honour Scotland’s choice and avoid a no-deal Brexit, nor work with us to urge the Prime Minister to rule that out by revoking, or at least by suspending, article 50. Scotland deserves and needs better than the Prime Minister’s blindfold EU exit or a no deal, as both would cause untold chaos.
Last week, I made it clear in this chamber that the Scottish Government believes that it is time to put the choice about our future back to the people in a second referendum. That is more urgent than ever now. It is essential that the UK Parliament takes control of the process, demonstrates that there is a majority for a people’s vote and starts work on the legislation that will deliver another referendum. However, this Scottish Government, as a responsible Government, must also prepare the nation and the people, in so far as it can, for any eventuality, including that of a no deal.
Although this Government will do everything that we can to prepare and help, we must not let anyone believe that we can do everything. That would be impossible for any Government, anywhere. We will, however, work with all those who have a similar task, including the UK Government, and tomorrow I will meet UK ministers to discuss these matters further.
I will outline the Scottish Government’s overall approach. Over the past few months, I have met each of my Cabinet colleagues to discuss their expectations and concerns about a no-deal scenario. That process was underpinned by detailed work across Government to identify the risks and potential impacts of EU exit, and the mitigating actions that we and others could take, across a wide range of issues.
Through those processes, we have considered, in detail, the legislative, organisational and financial issues arising out of a possible no deal. Furthermore, weekly meetings of SGoRR—the Scottish Government resilience room—have been held, convened by the Deputy First Minister. The meetings have input from other cabinet secretaries, including those responsible for health, justice, transport, rural and finance issues, as well as their officials, other organisations such as Transport Scotland, Food Standards Scotland and Marine Scotland, the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities, civil contingencies responders and, of course, Police Scotland. The structure is supported by a rapid response group of officials, which will grow as need requires.
Staffing is a key issue. Across the Scottish Government, directorates are refocusing on detailed preparations for no deal, realigning staff towards that work where required. We are mobilising the Scottish Government and its associated agencies and public bodies, aligning our existing financial and staff resources towards those areas with specific no-deal impacts and ensuring that we have the right people, in the right places, with the right skills to respond quickly and effectively.
Given the wide range of problems that a no-deal exit would undoubtedly bring, members will understand that our plans and preparations are wide ranging, too. There are a number of key areas of focus. It is well recognised that, for example, the new customs arrangements and regulatory checks that no deal would involve would severely disrupt the flow of goods at UK borders, particularly Dover, which handles many of our key goods, such as food and medicines.
A no-deal exit would jeopardise Scotland’s food security, as well as seriously harming the ability of Scottish food and drink producers to export to the EU their goods, such as our beef and lamb, which would face significant tariffs.
Half of all the food that the UK consumes is imported. Of the food that is imported, about 70 per cent comes from the EU. The availability and price of food and drink are expected to be significantly affected, with a disproportionate impact on the most vulnerable in our society. Consequently, the Scottish Government, including Transport Scotland, is working with distributors, purchasers, suppliers, transport providers, ports and Caledonian Maritime Assets Ltd to fully assess the impact and identify what can be done to mitigate disruption. Our aim is to secure the best flow of essential goods into Scotland by using existing routes or developing new ones.
In health and social care, no deal would risk the supply of medicines and medical devices. It would have a negative impact on our health and social care workforce, on-going clinical trials, access to future EU funding and the rights of Scottish citizens to access state-provided healthcare across the EU.
Our attempts to ensure continuing supplies of medicines are being severely hampered by the UK Government’s refusal to provide us with critical information about which medicines might be subject to supply problems. It is imperative for the UK Government to provide that information now. Just two hours ago, after sustained pressure from this Government, the UK Government indicated that it would share medicines data, but we still await the information. In addition, work on the stockpiling of medical devices and clinical consumables in Scotland is on-going and will have financial implications for us, which could necessitate bringing forward funding from next year.
If there was a no-deal exit, we would lose access to many of the security and law enforcement co-operation measures that Police Scotland and the Crown Office use daily to keep people safe. We would lose membership of Europol and use of the European arrest warrant. We would also lose access to vital information-sharing arrangements. That would represent a significant downgrading of our policing and security capability when cross-border crime and security threats are increasing. Police Scotland is considering what actions could be taken to substitute for those arrangements and is organising itself to be prepared for civil contingencies emergencies.
On fishing, members will know that, unlike the UK as a whole, Scotland is a net exporter of seafood—EU member states accounted for 77 per cent of Scottish overseas seafood exports in 2017. Any delays that were experienced at the vital Dover to Calais and Eurotunnel corridor would have a catastrophic impact on our seafood industry and, in turn, on our remote rural and coastal communities, which rely wholly or partly on seafood sectors. I feel that keenly, given my constituency interests.
The economic effects of no deal—especially of new tariff and non-tariff barriers—and the disruption to trade with the EU would be felt severely and immediately. We are actively investigating what routes might be available to ensure that such goods get to market, although the lack of inspection staff and the reversion of the UK to third-country status might well be insuperable in the short term. So much for the UK Government—and Conservative MSPs—being concerned for fishing communities.
Many other issues are on the list of risks and issues, which is being regularly updated, and work is being done on all of them. In the time that is available to me, I will emphasise four overarching issues that need to be noted.
First, one of the biggest difficulties that faces us is the problem of getting information from the UK Government. There are signs that that is improving slowly in some areas, but it is essential for the UK Government to see the provision of such information and the sharing of plans—along with joint working—as a process that requires the close involvement of, and respect for the institutions of, the devolved Administrations. I will stress that again in London tomorrow.
Secondly, we continue to press the UK Government to assess fully the financial implications of leaving the EU. We have been clear that Scotland’s public finances must not suffer detriment. In the event of no deal, an urgent transfer of funds would be required from the UK Government to allow the Scottish Government to meet the obligations that it would have to enter into. Money is already being spent, and the financial implications of EU exit and its associated preparation activity have been raised on a number of occasions by the Cabinet Secretary for Finance, Economy and Fair Work with the chancellor and the Chief Secretary to the Treasury.
Thirdly, the UK Government’s nebulous approach to decision making on Brexit has meant that it is impossible to know when plans might need to go into effect. The Scottish Cabinet agreed this morning, building on existing planning and activity, to further accelerate work to mitigate the potential impacts of the UK leaving the EU without a deal. We are undertaking necessary preparations to enable us to operate our arrangements at very short notice. I assure the chamber that I will keep it informed and I make an offer to the party leaders and Brexit spokespeople to ensure that they are briefed whenever new developments make activating our plans more likely.
Finally, it is vital that the people of Scotland get a clear, consistent message about the work that is being done. We are using all the normal communication channels to send that message and we will step up that public information activity if and when we are required to put those plans into operation.
It is essential that there is a single, clear, co-ordinating structure to take forward the plans and to measure them against the reality of what is taking place. Therefore, under the leadership of the Deputy First Minister, the SGoRR mechanism is now in operation and will report to the First Minister.
A no-deal, cliff-edge exit is not yet inevitable. Indeed, leaving the EU is not yet inevitable. However, as a responsible Government, we cannot wait any longer. The consequences and risks are too pressing and too severe. Given the current situation, it is incumbent on us to step up our existing planning for a no-deal outcome in the ways that I have just outlined.
The evidence is clear that a no-deal Brexit would be a disaster, and I again call on the Tories to work with us to rule it out. The challenges are not of our making, but measuring up to them is something that we can and must do.