Following the special report last year from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on the impact of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the Scottish Government, along with other Governments in the UK, asked the Committee on Climate Change to provide further advice on target levels. The Committee on Climate Change’s advice was published on 2 May and recommended that Scotland should set 2045 as the target year to reach net zero emissions. The Scottish Government has accepted the CCC’s recommendation and has therefore lodged amendment 1 to set 2045 as the net zero emissions target year for Scotland. Members will note that amendment 1 also makes provision for modification of the target year by way of secondary legislation, which I will address later.
The CCC’s advice is clear that a 2045 net zero target represents the “highest possible ambition” for Scotland, as called for by the Paris agreement. When he gave evidence to this committee on 14 May, Professor Forster of the CCC said:
“I think that we can say with confidence that the ... 2045 target ... for Scotland will be the most ambitious in the whole world”.—[Official Report, Environment, Climate Change and Land Reform Committee, 14 May 2019; c 9.]
Such a target matches the committee’s recommendation that the Government should act in line with the CCC’s advice. The CCC’s advice is clear that the delivery of net zero emissions in Scotland by 2045 depends on UK ambition increasing in line with net zero by 2050 and increased UK-wide action across policy areas that remain reserved. I am pleased that the UK Government last week accepted the CCC’s advice and followed us in beginning a legislative process to change its target accordingly.
Mark Ruskell has lodged amendment 1B to set 2042 as the net zero target year. I urge members not to support that, as it would mean going beyond what the CCC has advised is the “highest possible ambition”. The CCC does not “currently consider it credible” to aim to reach domestic net zero emissions any sooner than 2045.
I am aware that Mark Ruskell may seek to argue that that target reflects the CCC’s analysis, as set out in the 20 May letter to the committee, if known future changes to the greenhouse gas inventory are ignored. If members wish to consider legislating for a target on that basis, they need to be absolutely clear in two regards. First, it means discounting the independent expert advice of the CCC. The CCC’s recommendation is for 2045. During the meeting on 14 May, Chris Stark advised the committee:
“We have offered you the best assessment of what is achievable in Scotland.”
He went on to ask Parliament
“to take the advice that we offer in the report, which is very ambitious.”—[Official Report, Environment, Climate Change and Land Reform Committee, 14 May 2019; c 15.]
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Secondly, setting a target now that ignores the inventory changes that we know are about to happen would mean that it would be necessary to modify the targets again very soon. In particular, it would mean that we would need to push the net zero date backwards in one to three years’ time. That would require a process of secondary legislation that would further occupy the time of the Government, the Parliament and the CCC when we would all be better focusing on delivering emissions reductions. That cannot be the right approach.
I am also aware of claims being made in this morning’s press by Friends of the Earth Scotland that the CCC has
“admitted you need to set the date at 2042 to really deliver in 2045.”
That is a straightforward misrepresentation of the CCC’s advice. The chief executive of the CCC confirmed—and I will quote exactly from his letter:
“we recommend that the net zero target date that should be legislated is 2045; and not 2042.”
Given the importance of the issue to today’s decision, I have sent the full text of Chris Stark’s letter to the committee.
The technical landscape around the on-going revisions to the GHG inventory, decisions on which are made at United Nations and UK level, is clearly very complex. In the face of that complexity, the right approach is to be guided by independent expert advice that is based on the full range of available evidence. The CCC has provided that advice, and the Government has accepted it.
I have lodged amendment 6 to increase the 2030 target to a 70 per cent reduction, and amendment 7 to increase the 2040 target to a 90 per cent reduction. Those targets are also in line with the CCC’s advice of 2 May.
Claudia Beamish has lodged amendment 92, which is in direct opposition to amendment 6, seeking to change the 2030 target to 76 per cent. I understand that she might deploy similar arguments to those that I expect to hear from Mark Ruskell on the 2042 net zero date regarding technical matters to do with the GHG inventory. I strongly advise members against setting a 76 per cent target for 2030 for the same reasons that I have set out previously. The CCC has been clear, including in the evidence that it gave directly to the committee on 14 May, that it has provided the best possible assessment of the highest possible ambition for Scotland based on the full range of available advice and evidence. That advice is a 70 per cent target for 2030.
I recognise the particular importance of the 2030 target, as action in the next decade will be vital in light of the IPCC’s special report on the global climate emergency.
I emphasise to members that the 70 per cent target recommended by the CCC would be the most ambitious statutory goal for 2030 of any country in the world. It also more than meets what the IPCC’s special report says is needed globally over the next decade to prevent warming of more than 1.5°C. Meeting such a target will be very challenging and will require a step change in policy action here in Scotland. It will depend on the UK Government doing more, given the importance of reserved levers. The Scottish Government recognises the challenge and will rise to it.
I expect Claudia Beamish and Mark Ruskell to argue that the CCC’s recommended target is not ambitious. That is simply untrue, and it fails to recognise that the target builds on the already world-leading goals for 2030 that are set out in the bill and in the 2009 act.
I now turn to the other functions of the amendments. Amendment 1 also imposes tighter restrictions on the ability of the Scottish ministers to amend the date of the net zero emissions target year. Under section 1 as introduced, ministers may, by secondary legislation, propose to Parliament the modification of the net zero target year either to an earlier date or to a later year, subject to certain restrictions. The Scottish ministers may propose a later date only if such a change has been advised by the CCC. Those conditions were already strict to ensure that the net zero emissions target year could be pushed back only if independent expert advice said that that should occur due to circumstances having changed.
When giving stage 1 evidence to the committee, environmental non-governmental organisations welcomed the safeguards. Nevertheless, the stage 1 report recommended a further tightening of the limitations placed on this and similar powers. Therefore, I have included provisions in amendment 1 that further restrict the power to push the net zero target date back, with the effect that the Scottish ministers can propose such a change to Parliament only if the CCC advises that that should occur specifically due to considerations of
“scientific knowledge about climate change or ... international carbon reporting practice”.
Amendment 12 imposes tighter restrictions on the power to modify the interim targets in the same way as described for the net zero target date through amendment 1.
As I hope that I have demonstrated through the many amendments that I have lodged, the Scottish Government has listened to and considered the committee’s recommendations and attempted to address committee concerns as far as possible. The tightening of the power to amend target levels and dates is just one example of that.
Finally, amendment 1 also introduces a duty on the Scottish ministers to have regard to the target-setting criteria, as well as the most up-to-date advice from the relevant body, when preparing draft regulations to modify the net zero target year. That has been brought forward to implement a recommendation of the Delegated Powers and Law Reform Committee that making that duty explicit would be more consistent with other provisions in the bill.
Amendment 4 removes the 2050 target from the bill and the 2009 act. I have proposed the change because, by way of amendment 1, a net zero emissions target date for a date earlier than 2050 will now be set in the bill. Under those circumstances, I have proposed that the clear end point for Scotland’s statutory framework should be the achieving of net zero emissions, rather than any particular fixed date.
Section 8 makes provisions to hold the Scottish ministers to account if they choose not to amend target levels in line with advice from the relevant body, which is the CCC. The bill as introduced includes a requirement for ministers to make a statement to Parliament 12 months following receipt of advice that targets should be changed if they do not act on that advice. In my response to the committee’s stage 1 report, I explained that the 12-month timeframe is intended to reflect the time that it would take to undertake policy consideration of the advice as well as any public and stakeholder consultation that might be required. It would be difficult to envisage a situation in which Parliament was not well aware of the Government’s intention earlier in that period, even without a statutory duty requiring a formal statement of that intention.
However, I listened to the concerns of the committee on those matters and I have lodged amendment 17. In addition to the obligation for a statement after 12 months if advice that targets should be changed is not followed, the amendment requires ministers to publish a statement within three months of receiving such advice, setting out how they intend to respond to it.
Amendment 19 imposes the same obligation on ministers to publish a statement within three months of receiving advice from the CCC to the effect that the interim targets should be modified.
I have also lodged a set of technical amendments in relation to annual targets to ensure their sensible calculation following the setting of a net zero emission target year in the bill through amendment 1 and the removal of the 2050 target through amendment 4.
Although complicated to explain, the amendments will ensure that there continues to be a clear way to calculate annual targets and recalculate them if the interim targets are amended or if the net zero emissions target year is modified. The approach to calculating the annual target levels as a straight line between the two nearest headline target levels remains the same as in the bill as introduced.
I will summarise the more substantial amendments as briefly as I can. Amendment 21 creates a new “final annual target period”. Instead of 2041 to 2049, that period will be from 2041 until the year before the net zero emissions target year, which would be 2044 in the first instance. Amendment 20 amends the section heading of section 3 of the 2009 act as a consequence.
Amendments 24 and 25, taken together, set out how the annual targets in that period will be calculated. Amendment 24 inserts a reference to a “100%” reduction, which is equivalent to net zero emissions, instead of “the 2050 target”. Amendment 25 ensures that the annual targets are equally spaced over the relevant time period. Amendments 17 and 28, taken together, will ensure that annual targets continue to be calculated in the same way if the net zero emissions target year is modified.
Mark Ruskell’s amendments to section 9 in relation to annual targets follow on from his amendment to set a net zero emissions target year of 2042. The Government’s amendments are designed to work with a net zero emissions target year of 2045, with a separate interim target for 2040. If the committee agrees to the Government’s approach to the net zero target date and rejects Mark Ruskell’s approach, I urge him not to move amendments 40 to 45 and 28A.
The remaining Government amendments in the grouping are consequential to amendments 1 and/or 4 or are otherwise purely technical. Amendments 5, 8 to 11, 14 to 16, 18, 33, 35 and 38 are consequential to the removal of the 2050 target through amendment 4. There are so many of them because the 2050 target appears so frequently across the current 2009 act framework.
Amendment 13 is consequential to the setting of a net zero emissions target in the bill. It will remove the reference to the enabling power for making regulations to specify a net zero emissions target year of 2050 or earlier and replace it with a reference to modifying the year to one that is earlier than 2045.
Amendments 22, 23, 26 and 29 to 31 are consequential to the setting of a net zero emissions target in the bill and the resulting removal of the 2050 target.
Amendments 32 and 34 are again consequential to the setting of a net zero emissions target in the bill. They amend the ministerial duties to publish information about the targets.
Amendment 36 is consequential to both amendment 1 and amendment 4. It amends the definition of “emissions reduction target” to mean an annual target, an interim target or the net zero emissions target.
Amendment 37 is consequential to the setting of a net zero emissions target in the bill. It updates a cross-reference to the section that sets the net zero target year.
Turning to the final amendment in the group, I cannot support amendment 105, in the name of Maurice Golden, as it is completely unnecessary. It would place a duty on ministers to make regulations under the affirmative procedure to specify a definition of the term “net-zero”. The net zero emissions target is already clearly defined through the provisions of the bill. The committee raised the issue in its stage 1 report. In my response to the report, I clearly set out how the bill defines the term. For the benefit of any colleagues here who have not read my response to the report, I will reiterate the relevant points.
The net zero emissions target is defined in the bill to mean a 100 per cent reduction from baseline levels in net emissions of all greenhouse gases. The various elements of the definition are all further defined in the 2009 act. Section 13 of the 2009 act defines the concept of the net Scottish emissions account, which is the aggregate amount of net Scottish emissions, reduced by any credits purchased by ministers. Of course, the bill sets a default limit of zero on the extent of credit use for all future years, unless Parliament decides otherwise. In particular, sections 10 and 11 of the 2009 act set out the greenhouse gases that are included, which are all seven gases covered by the Kyoto protocol.
In summary, I urge members to support the Government amendments in this group, which will set world-leading targets in line with the independent expert advice of the CCC. That is the approach that the committee called for in its stage 1 report and has welcomed in its stage 2 report. I urge members to reject the amendments that would mean rejecting that independent advice and an evidence-based approach.
That was quite long, but this is of course the key group of amendments for the bill.
I move amendment 1.