The Scottish Government is required by law to review lockdown restrictions every three weeks. The latest review falls due today, and I will shortly report on the decisions that we have reached. First, I will report on today’s statistics and other developments.
Since yesterday, an additional 77 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed, which represents 1 per cent of those who were newly tested yesterday and takes the total number of cases to 19,534. That is the highest number of new cases in almost three months, which underlines the need for continuing caution.
A total of 249 patients are currently in hospital with confirmed Covid, which is an increase of one since yesterday. Two people are in intensive care, which is the same as yesterday.
In the past 24 hours, no deaths have been registered of patients who had been confirmed through a test as having the virus. The total number of deaths in Scotland under that measurement therefore remains 2,492. However, yesterday’s figures from National Records of Scotland, which reported three Covid deaths during the previous week, showed that the total number of deaths is higher than that, and that people are still dying from the virus.
We must never lose sight of the grief and heartbreak that is caused by every one of those deaths. I again send my condolences to everyone who has lost a loved one to the illness.
I turn now to the review of lockdown restrictions. I am not able to say that there will be a move today from phase 3 of our route map out of lockdown to phase 4. For now, we will remain in phase 3. I must give notice that that might well also be the case beyond the next review point.
For us to move to phase 4, we would have to be satisfied that
“the virus is no longer considered a significant threat to public health”.
That is a quotation from our route map. As today’s figures have demonstrated, and as has been confirmed to me in advice from the chief medical officer, that is definitely not the case.
Therefore, today’s update sets out which phase 3 restrictions will be changed in the coming weeks, while other necessary restrictions will remain in place. This has involved some difficult and delicate decisions.
The figures that we have been reporting in recent weeks show that incidence and prevalence of the virus continue to be at low levels in Scotland as a whole. However, the range for our reproduction number has recently increased, and our most recent estimates suggest that it could currently be above 1. Of course, that is partly because, when prevalence is generally low, localised outbreaks have a bigger effect on the R number. That said, we must continue to monitor it closely.
We are also recording more positive cases than we were recording three weeks ago. When we last reviewed the lockdown measures, 14 new cases a day, on average, had been recorded over the previous week. We are now recording 52 new cases a day, on average. In the past three weeks, there has been one significant outbreak of the virus in Aberdeen, and a number of smaller clusters in locations around the country.
We are also now dealing with a significant cluster in Coupar Angus, which is linked to a 2 Sisters Food Group food processing plant. That is no doubt reflected in the fact that 27 of today’s 77 cases are in the NHS Tayside health board area. In total, 43 cases have been identified so far as being part of that outbreak—37 people who work in the plant and six contacts of theirs—and that number will almost certainly grow. We are stressing the importance of all workers at the plant self-isolating and getting tested. A mobile testing unit remains on site, and the factory has been closed down for a two-week period. Given the nature and potential scale of the outbreak, we are considering carefully and urgently whether further restrictions are necessary. Later this afternoon, I will chair another meeting of the Scottish Government’s resilience committee.
In addition, several cases that are linked to schools are worth noting. A total of eight adults at Kingspark school in Dundee have tested positive, which has prompted the decision to temporarily close that school. In addition, the number of cases in the cluster in north-east Glasgow now stands at 16. There is also a separate, but linked, cluster of nine cases in Coatbridge. A number of the cases in those clusters are school children, although there is no evidence that they contracted the virus in school. Greater Glasgow and Clyde NHS Board is carrying out contact tracing around several other schools in Glasgow.
Finally, there were 12 new cases in Grampian yesterday. The latest figures that are available are that a total of 407 cases have been identified in the NHS Grampian health board area since 26 July. Of those, 237 are associated with the same cluster as has been linked to Aberdeen pubs, and 1,185 contacts have now been identified from those 237 cases.
As I said yesterday, there is now evidence that the original cluster of cases that were linked to Aberdeen pubs is coming under control, but in recent days we have continued to see new cases that do not seem to be linked to that first cluster. Because of that, restrictions in Aberdeen have been extended, but will be reviewed again on Sunday, with a view to setting out, if possible, a firm timetable for lifting the restrictions.
All those outbreaks are being tackled by our test and protect teams, and current evidence on their performance suggests that the vast majority of contacts are being identified, with most being identified quickly. However, the clusters and new cases highlight the continuing need for caution, especially as our priority continues to be to keep schools safely open.
Of course, those clusters are not completely unexpected. We have always known that reopening more services and premises, especially indoor bars, restaurants and cafes, might lead to an increase in cases. Indeed, two major risk factors have stood out in reports of recent clusters. As we expected, indoor hospitality—bars and restaurants—is one. The other is social events and gatherings in people’s homes.
We have already tightened some of the rules in relation to the indoor hospitality sector—for example, by putting guidance on a statutory footing and making it compulsory to collect customers’ contact data. I will announce further measures that are intended to aid compliance, at the end of my statement.
Understanding the risks of indoor settings has also made us think carefully about further changes and the need to ensure rigorous compliance with guidance. On balance, and taking account of the different harms that Covid and the restrictions that are imposed to tackle it are inflicting on the country, we have decided that the reopenings that were pencilled in for 24 August can proceed. I must stress, however, that such reopenings should happen only when the appropriate guidance covering that activity or setting has been implemented. We will also monitor the impact carefully and, as with everything else, we will not hesitate to reimpose restrictions, should that prove to be necessary.
Full details will be available on the Scottish Government website; the 24 August changes include some outdoor live events, with physical distancing, enhanced hygiene and restricted numbers. Organised outdoor contact sports will also resume for people of all ages, but for outdoor coaching sessions there will be a cap of 30 on the total number of people who can be coached at any one time.
Driving lessons will resume, and indoor face-to-face advice services, such as citizens advice services, can also open to provide financial advice when necessary.
We have given particularly careful consideration to premises such as bingo halls, because they share some obvious similarities with the indoor hospitality sector. It is therefore of the utmost importance that guidance be strictly adhered to, so we will be monitoring that carefully.
I now turn to the reopening of gyms, swimming pools and indoor sports courts. Three weeks ago, I indicated that they could reopen from 14 September, but I also said that we would consider whether that date could safely be brought forward, especially given the wider physical and mental health benefits of access to such facilities. Having done that, I am now able to confirm that, subject to guidance being in place, those facilities can reopen from 31 August. For indoor sports courts, including dance studios and gymnastics courts, it is worth stressing that for people aged 12 and over, reopening on that date applies to non-contact activity only.
Those are the only key changes to restrictions that we plan to make within the current review period. However, we hope that further changes will be possible from Monday 14 September, in line with what is set out in our route map. I must stress that those possible changes are, at this stage, indicative only. Given the volatility that we face in transmission of the virus, there is a very real possibility that some of, or all, those plans could change.
With that significant caveat, we hope that from 14 September, sports stadia will be able to reopen, although only for limited numbers of spectators and with strict physical distancing in place. Some professional sports events might be arranged for spectators before then, with Scottish Government agreement, to test the safety of any new arrangements. We also hope that from 14 September, indoor contact sports activities can resume for people aged 12 and over.
We hope that entertainment sites and cultural venues, such as theatres and live music venues, will be able to reopen from that date, too, but with strict physical distancing in place. To facilitate that, such venues can reopen for preparation and rehearsal from 24 August.
Finally, we hope that, from 14 September, wedding and civil partnership receptions and funeral wakes will be able to take place with more attendees than at present, although numbers will remain restricted. We intend to set out more detail on that, including on permitted numbers, shortly.
Those are the activities and premises for which we are currently setting indicative dates, but I stress again that, at this stage, those dates are only indicative.
Unfortunately, we are not yet setting a date for the reopening of non-essential call centres and offices. We will review that position again at the next review point. For now, working from home will remain the default position. I know that many office workers miss seeing their colleagues and that many are keen to resume a more normal daily routine. I also know that some businesses, regardless of how well they might be managing to work virtually, will want more of their employees to meet and work together. In addition, I am acutely aware of the impact of home working on services such as cafes and restaurants that are based in areas with lots of office workers.
However, given the numbers involved, a full return to office working would significantly increase the risk of indoor transmission. It would also make buses and trains significantly busier and increase transmission risks there, too. Our conclusion, therefore, is that a return to working in offices—unless that work is essential and cannot be completed at home—presents too great a risk at this time. In addition, the impact that it could have on community transmission would make it more difficult to keep schools open.
Unfortunately, the issue comes down to difficult judgments about priorities. We have made it clear that our priority is to enable children to be safely back at school and, with the virus at its current levels, that means that we cannot do everything else that we would like to do, such as bring non-essential offices back into operation.
I know that people will ask why their kids can go to school but they cannot go to the office—that might seem like an inconsistency—but that logic is back to front. It is because people cannot go to the office, and because of the other restrictions that we are keeping in place, that we are able to send children back to school. If we opened everything up right now, the overall impact would simply be too great. The virus would run away from us and we would, in all likelihood, be forced to reintroduce restrictions that none of us wants to see. We have been able to relax some restrictions only because others have remained in place.
There is a final issue that I want to cover. It relates to the risks that I mentioned earlier of transmission inside people’s homes, and in pubs, cafes and restaurants. We have considered very carefully what further enforcement actions we can take to minimise the risk of transmission in those settings.
For the indoor hospitality sector, I am grateful to the many pubs, restaurants and cafes that have opened responsibly and which have gone to great lengths to stick to the rules and guidance on ventilation, hygiene, face coverings, contact details and physical distancing. Their efforts are hugely appreciated. However, we know that not all hospitality businesses have implemented the guidance effectively, so we intend to strengthen the power of local authorities to act in such circumstances.
The Scottish Government has powers under the emergency legislation to issue directions in respect of a class of premises—for example, a direction to close all pubs in a particular postcode. We intend to give local authorities the power to act in respect of individual specific premises that are breaching guidelines and risking transmission of the virus. That power would enable local authorities to close such premises or to impose conditions on their remaining open, where they deem that that is necessary for the purpose of preventing, protecting against or controlling the spread of infection. We believe that that is a vital but proportionate step, which will help local authorities to ensure that businesses stick to the guidelines and that action can be taken where those guidelines are being breached.
The second area that we have been looking at carefully is that of indoor social events such as house parties. We know from the reports of our test and protect teams and from evidence from other places in the United Kingdom and, indeed, around the world that such indoor events pose a major, very significant transmission risk. Because the virus is so infectious, if it is present at such an event, there is a very high likelihood that most people at the event will get the virus. That is why we advise strict limits on indoor gatherings. Right now, our advice is that no more than eight people from a maximum of three different households should be gathering indoors.
I know that the vast majority of people will be sticking to that. It is not easy to do so and I am very grateful to them for that. However, we know that a minority do not do that and that large house parties pose a real and significant risk of causing clusters and outbreaks like some of those that we have recently been dealing with.
Therefore, for use in cases of flagrant breach and as a last resort, we intend to give the police powers of enforcement to break up and disperse large indoor gatherings. We believe that both those new powers are necessary to continue to suppress the virus, minimise the risk of outbreak and keep it under control, which is so necessary. We will lay regulations for both measures next week and we intend that they will come into force next Friday, 28 August.
The past three weeks has given us mixed news. We have seen a rise in new cases and a number of clusters across the country. We have also, regrettably, had to reimpose some restrictions in Aberdeen. However, we still have low numbers of new cases overall, we have very low levels of hospital admissions and we have strong and growing evidence that our test and protect teams and system are working well. Given the resurgence of Covid that we are seeing in some parts of Europe—and given that we always knew that reopening more parts of the economy would be risky—the picture in Scotland could be better, but it could also be significantly worse.
We are still making progress in our overall fight against the virus. We cannot take that progress for granted, especially if we are to keep our schools open, keep businesses and services open and retain our ability to socialise and meet up in small groups of friends and family. Covid is still a major risk, and we must still be cautious. We can see the evidence of that in Aberdeen, in each new cluster in Scotland and in reports from elsewhere in the UK, Europe and around the world. That is why today’s review has sought to take a careful and balanced approach.
I hope that the reopening of some services will be welcomed. Notwithstanding the risk that every reopening presents, we know that that is essential to reduce the economic harm that the virus is doing. I hope that people will also understand why, as we try to open services and to keep them open, we must take firm action if rules and guidance are not being complied with.
I also hope that everyone watching will understand that, although Government must and will take the lead in making difficult decisions, drafting guidance and proposing laws, we cannot control Covid on our own. We are all dependent on the choices that are made by each and every person in the country.
Please think carefully about whether you are playing your part as fully as you should be. Please do not meet indoors in groups of more than eight people from any more than three households. That applies in a pub, cafe or restaurant just as it does in someone’s home. Remember physical distancing and do not go into crowded places where that may not be possible. Ask yourself whether your social life feels normal—it should not feel like that at the moment. Wherever you are, assume the virus is present and act at all times to avoid creating bridges that allow it to cross from one household to another.
I have spoken before about the importance of solidarity in how we deal with the pandemic. I know that it is hard, especially after five months, but sticking to the rules is an expression of our care for each other. It is the way in which we protect not only ourselves but our loved ones and our communities.
For that reason, I will end by reminding everyone again of FACTS: the five golden rules that will help us to stay safe, even as life gets back to something closer to normality.
The F is face coverings, which should be worn in enclosed spaces: public transport, shops and anywhere else that physical distancing is more difficult. A reminds us to avoid crowded areas, outdoors as well as indoors. C tells you to clean your hands regularly and thoroughly and to clean hard surfaces after touching them. T says that 2m distancing remains the clear advice. S says that you should self-isolate and book a test immediately if you have symptoms of Covid: a new cough; a fever, or a loss of, or change in, your sense of taste or smell. You can book a test at nhsinform.scot or by phoning 0800 028 2816.
Any time any of us drops our guard and forgets those rules, we give the virus a chance to spread. We risk turning an infection into a cluster, and a cluster into an outbreak. If all of us stick to the FACTS, we can continue to suppress the virus, we can keep schools and services open and we can think about easing more restrictions in the future.
Thank you, once again, to everyone across the country who is helping us to do that.