Two weeks ago, the Scottish Government published the new strategic approach to tackling Covid, and shortly afterwards we confirmed the level of restrictions that would apply initially to each local authority area.
I indicated then that the allocation of levels would be reviewed on a weekly basis. Our intention is, unless we consider more urgent action to be necessary, to set out any changes on a Tuesday and for those changes to take effect the following Friday. Today is the first of those reviews, and I will shortly confirm the levels that will apply to each local authority area from Friday. However, I can confirm at the outset that the majority of local authorities will see no immediate change this week.
I will set out the rationale behind our decisions, and this afternoon we will publish on the Scottish Government website detailed data for each local authority. Of course, it is important to be clear that those decisions always involve careful judgments as well as hard data.
First, though, I will report on today’s statistics. The total number of positive cases that were reported yesterday was 832. That represents 9.5 per cent of people who have been newly tested, and it takes the total number of cases to 75,187. Of the new cases, 293 were in Greater Glasgow and Clyde, 171 were in Lanarkshire, 114 were in Lothian and 90 were in Ayrshire and Arran. The remaining cases were spread across the other seven mainland health boards. The number of people in hospital is 1,239, which is an increase of 12 from yesterday, and 102 people are in intensive care, which is three fewer than yesterday.
I deeply regret to say that, in the past 24 hours, a further 39 deaths have been registered of patients who first tested positive over the previous 28 days. That means that the total number of deaths under that measure is now 3,079. Two weeks ago, that number was 2,726. Tomorrow’s update from National Records of Scotland will give us a fuller picture of the number of deaths, based on its wider definition.
However, even using today’s figures, the fact that we have seen more than 300 people dying in the past two weeks is a sharp reminder of the heartbreak that the virus causes and of why we must do all that we can to tackle it. Once again, my deepest condolences go to all those who have lost a loved one.
It is obvious that those who have lost someone or who are living with the long-term effects of Covid carry the greatest burden of the virus, but I know that everyone is finding the experience and the restrictions that we are living under increasingly difficult. I know that the figures that I report each day contribute to a sense that there is no light at the end of this tunnel. Throughout the pandemic, I have tried not to give false assurance; instead, I have done my best to be straight about the challenge that we face. I am going to stick with that approach, not least because, as will be obvious from my statement today, we still face tough times ahead.
However—and this is important—there are also grounds for optimism now. We are not at the end of the tunnel yet, but a glimmer of light has appeared. Yes, there will still be dips in the road and the light might be obscured at times, but it is there and we are heading towards it. Yesterday’s news from the Pfizer vaccine trial was extremely encouraging—that is probably an understatement—and it is not the only vaccine undergoing trials just now. Of course, there are questions still to be answered and hurdles yet to be overcome, and it will take time practically and logistically to get large numbers of people vaccinated. However, it was the most positive indication yet that science will get us out of this and it will, I hope, do so in the not too distant future. That is really good news.
Of course, even the not-too-distant future is still the future, which means that, for now, it is down to all of us to keep the virus under control and save lives by sticking to the rules and guidance.
However, there also is some cause for cautious optimism here. The sacrifices that everyone is making are hard and they feel never-ending, but they are helping. They have made a difference and they are saving lives. I have no doubt about that; no one should be in doubt about that.
To illustrate the point, let me give some detail on one of the measures we look at each week—the average number of new cases per day over a continuous seven-day period, based on the day when each test sample was given. In just the three weeks between Friday 25 September and 16 October, Scotland’s average daily figure for new cases increased by more than 150 per cent, from 482 to 1,217. If that scale of increase had continued, we would now have around 3,000 new cases a day. Instead, in the following three-week period, the number of new cases stayed at more or less the same level. By last Friday, the average daily figure was 1,174.
There have also been some signs of a fall in hospital admissions. In the seven days to 30 October, 725 people were admitted to hospital with Covid. In the seven days to 6 November, 545 people were admitted.
There is therefore no doubt that the restrictions that we have put in place and which people are abiding by have dramatically slowed the spread of the virus, but that figure of more than 500 hospital admissions in a week is still too high. The number of new cases that we are seeing—more than 1,000 a day on average—is also still too high. It is crucial that, although we have seen a levelling-off, we are not yet seeing a sustained fall in the number of cases. In fact, although there was a very slight fall in some recent weeks, last week we saw a slight increase. Clearly, that requires continued caution.
As I have set out before, a rising or even plateauing rate of infection is not a stable position. We want to see a decline in cases. We will be monitoring the situation carefully in the days ahead and cannot rule out the need to take action beyond what I will set out today.
Also, in light of the situation that I have just outlined, it would clearly not be prudent to ease restrictions today, with one exception for our three island authorities that I will set out shortly. I can confirm that no local authority will move down a level this week. In light of particularly sharp increases in the number of cases, three local authorities will, unfortunately, move up from level 2 to level 3. Although, I am pleased to say that no local authority will move to level 4 this week, a number are giving us some cause for concern and we will be monitoring them particularly closely over the next few days.
Before I come on to the detail of all that, let me set out again the indicators and wider factors that we consider in reaching these decisions. We look at data for each local authority based on case numbers per 100,000 of the population, trends in case numbers, test positivity, and hospital and intensive care capacity. We are publishing the data that has informed our decisions for each local authority today and people can look at it on the Scottish Government website.
We also consider the extent to which different local authority areas are contributing to the situation across the country as a whole, and the links and interdependencies between them. We seek to balance the wider health, economic and social harms that are caused by the restrictions that are in place. We consider the advice of public health directors through the national incident management team and we consult local authorities. Then the Cabinet, with advice from the chief medical officer, the national clinical director and others, balances all those factors and takes decisions.
I turn to the detail of the decisions that the Cabinet reached this morning. First, I confirm that Highland, Moray, Orkney, Shetland and the Western Isles will remain at level 1. However, there must be no complacency in those areas. Restrictions that are still in place must be adhered to and all necessary precautions taken in workplaces, hospitality, schools and colleges and healthcare settings.
There is one restriction that we intend to ease for people living in Shetland, Orkney and the Western Isles. From Friday, residents of those three island authorities will be able to meet one other household inside their homes, up to a strict maximum of six people. We are able to make that change because case numbers in those island authorities are very low and sporadic and we recognise that the social isolation that is caused by such a restriction is often exacerbated in island communities where there are not as many public places to meet. However, and this is an important caveat, importation of the virus is a real risk to the islands. For that reason, we will be issuing clear guidance advising anyone who goes to, or returns to, the islands from the mainland to avoid in-house mixing for a period after their return.
Unfortunately, we do not yet consider it prudent to lift that restriction for people living in Highland and Moray, which are the other level 1 areas. Although cases in those areas remain relatively low, we have seen some volatility in recent days, so we continue to ask people living across the Highlands and in Moray, like people in the rest of the country, not to visit each other’s homes except for essential purposes, such as childcare, looking after a vulnerable person or being part of an extended household. I know that that is tough, but it remains the single most effective way of preventing transmission of the virus from one household to another.
Let me now turn to the areas that are currently in level 2. I can confirm that Aberdeenshire, Aberdeen City, the Borders, Dumfries and Galloway, and Argyll and Bute will all remain at level 2. Those are all areas that will be hopeful—as I am—of a move to level 1 soon. However, although there are some signs of stability and even improvement in most of them, there is not yet sufficient evidence of a sustained decline in the number of cases. Indeed, in the Borders and—although to a lesser extent—in Dumfries and Galloway, we have seen an increase in cases in the most recent data that we have available. For those reasons, we consider it sensible for those areas to remain in level 2 for now, but we remain hopeful that some or all of them will be able to move to level 1 soon.
The other areas that are currently in level 2 are Fife, Perth and Kinross and Angus. I can confirm that we have taken the very difficult, but in our view necessary and precautionary, decision to move Fife, Perth and Kinross and Angus to level 3 from Friday. Although on the raw indicators alone Angus and Perth and Kinross are not yet meeting the level 3 thresholds, and Fife is meeting only one of them, all three areas are on a sharply rising trajectory. The most recent data shows that, in the space of a week, the seven-day number of cases per 100,000 of the population has increased in Perth and Kinross by 32 per cent, in Fife by 40 per cent and in Angus by 47 per cent.
The advice of the chief medical officer and the national clinical director is that level 2 restrictions may not be sufficient to slow down and reverse increases of that magnitude and, as a result, an early move to level 3 was strongly recommended. I know how disappointing that will be to residents and businesses in those areas. However, the important point is that by acting now we hope to prevent an even more serious deterioration in the situation in future. I ask people living in those areas to check the Scottish Government website to understand the restrictions that are in place at level 3. Businesses will also find details there of the financial support that is available from the Scottish Government, which is, of course, in addition to the United Kingdom Government’s furlough scheme.
A factor that is relevant to both Angus and Perth and Kinross is proximity to and interaction with the city of Dundee. Dundee entered level 3 on 2 November and I can confirm that it will remain at level 3 for now. However, I hope that the three authorities going into level 3 this week will take some encouragement from it. The most recent data shows cases and test positivity declining in Dundee and, while it is too soon to be sure that that will be sustained, I want to stress that the trend is very much positive at this stage.
I can also confirm that the other 18 local authorities that are currently at level 3 will remain there for now. However, it is important to note that there is a varied picture across the level 3 areas and a move to level 4 for some in the near future cannot be ruled out, for reasons that I will outline. However, first, on the positive side, some of the current level 3 areas are, like Dundee, showing encouraging signs. There is some volatility in the most recent data for some of those areas, but I mention with varying degrees of confidence East Lothian, City of Edinburgh, Clackmannanshire, East Dunbartonshire, Falkirk, Midlothian, North Ayrshire and East Ayrshire.
We will monitor all those areas carefully, but we hope that, if people continue to abide by all the restrictions, we will continue to see improvement, and some of those areas may be able to move out of level 3 relatively soon.
However, there are two categories of level 3 areas that we will consider particularly carefully over the next week. First, there are areas where current restrictions have worked very effectively to halt sharp increases in cases and stabilise the situation. They include, in particular, the city of Glasgow, North Lanarkshire and South Lanarkshire, as well as West Lothian and West Dunbartonshire. That stabilisation is positive news—we should not lose sight of that—and, without the sacrifices that everyone has been making, the situation would be much more severe.
However, although cases in those areas have stabilised, they have done so at a stubbornly high level. I have set out previously the risks of going further into winter with a high level of cases, even if the numbers have plateaued. The difficult question that we must consider in the next days is whether more time in level 3 will start to reduce cases in those areas or whether more action will be required.
Finally, there are some areas in level 3 where we have, in recent days, seen a sharp rise in cases. Right now, we are particularly concerned about Inverclyde, Stirling and, to a lesser extent, South Ayrshire, Renfrewshire and East Renfrewshire.
The advice of the chief medical officer and the national clinical director is that, as those areas are already under the tougher level 3 restrictions, and given the need to understand the situations in those areas in more detail, an immediate move to level 4 would not be merited. However, their advice is that we should monitor the data for those areas closely and on a daily basis.
Given the severity of the level 4 restrictions, we will not take lightly a decision to move any part of the country to that level, and we want to give the current levels more of a chance to work. However, we will not shy away from making that decision if we think it necessary to limit the damage that the virus can do, or if we think that a short period in level 4 may be less harmful overall for an area than a prolonged period in level 3.
These are really difficult decisions. I stress that the week ahead is a particularly crucial juncture, and I will, of course, keep Parliament fully updated. However, I stress this point: the best chance that we all have of avoiding a move to level 4, or of moving our own area down a level, is to stick with it and abide by all the current restrictions. I know that fatigue and frustration are setting in, but I appeal to everyone across the country, particularly if you might have been letting your guard drop recently, to please redouble your efforts in the days ahead. In particular, please do not visit other people’s houses, as that is the biggest risk for passing the virus from one household to another.
We know—and we can show, as I have done to some extent today—that all these hard sacrifices are making a difference, but they will make a big enough difference only if we all do all the right things all the time. That is tough, but it is the reality that we face.
Finally, I stress the travel restrictions, which remain essential to a targeted approach to tackling the virus. Those will remain in guidance over the next week, but we continue to prepare the regulations—and to resolve the practical issues—that would be required to put them into law, and we will not hesitate to do that if we think that it is necessary.
However, I appeal to people across the country to please abide by the travel restrictions now, so that that does not become necessary. If you live in a level 3 council area, do not travel outside your own local authority area unless it is for essential purposes such as work that cannot be done at home, healthcare or caring responsibilities. You can find the full list of essential purposes on the Scottish Government website. If you live elsewhere, do not travel into a level 3 area except for the same essential purposes. In addition, please do not travel outside Scotland right now, to other parts of the UK or overseas, unless it is for those essential purposes.
Abiding by these restrictions is hard, and it is not a position that any of us wants to be in, but I cannot stress enough that it is essential if we are to avoid spreading the virus from high-prevalence areas to lower-prevalence areas. If we do spread the virus, those lower-prevalence areas will end up being under tougher restrictions than would otherwise have been necessary.
Many people across our country—too many people—are grieving the loss of a loved one right now. Many more have lost jobs or are worried about losing their jobs. Some people are living with the long-term health effects of Covid. For those who are carrying the heaviest burden of the virus, words are little comfort, of course, but for all of that, and for all the fatigue, frustration and apprehension that we all feel, let us not forget that there is a glimmer of hope. The numbers that I report—for new cases, people in hospital and people who are dying—remind us that the virus continues to exact a terrible toll, and, looking around the world just now, it is easy to see that, if we are not very careful, things could get worse. Against that, however, we can see that the sacrifices that we make are having an impact, and yesterday’s announcement about a vaccine is the best news that we have heard since the start of the pandemic. One of the points that I have tried to stress in the past few months is that, at some point, this will all be over. At some point, we will be looking back on it rather than living through it.
Today, although tough times still lie ahead, that seems a bit more real and a bit more graspable for all of us. Of course, the news does not remove the need for caution. It will be over one day—hopefully soon—but it is not over yet. This is not the time to let down our guard; now is the time to do everything that we can to look after and look out for each other. The more we can keep each other safe in the weeks and months ahead, the more we can look forward to brighter days in the spring.
Please, now more than ever, stick to the rules in your area, check the website to see what they are, and please remember FACTS: wear face coverings, avoid places with crowds of people, clean your hands and hard surfaces regularly, keep a 2m distance from people in other households, and self-isolate and get tested if you have any of the symptoms of Covid. If we all continue to do all of that all of the time, we will protect ourselves, our loved ones and our national health service, and we will undoubtedly save lives.
My thanks once again to everyone for sticking with it and sticking with each other.