I will update Parliament on the Cabinet’s review of the current lockdown restrictions, which took place earlier today. I will report on some cautious grounds for optimism, I am pleased to say, but I will also set out why it is vital, in order to protect the national health service and save lives, to stick with the restrictions for a further period. I will set out what that means for the timing of getting children back to school, which, of course, remains a priority for all of us. Finally, I will touch on other aspects of our response to Covid, including control of borders, the further expansion of testing and the progress of the vaccination programme.
First, though, I will give a brief summary of the latest statistics and then seek to put them in some context. The total number of positive cases reported yesterday was 1,165, which is 11.1 per cent of all tests carried out, and the total number of cases now stands at 164,927. I can also confirm that, by 8.30 am today, 284,582 people had received their first dose of vaccine. I will come back to the issue of vaccination and the progress of that programme later on in my statement. There are 1,989 people now in hospital with Covid, which is an increase of 30 from yesterday, and 150 people are in intensive care, which is an increase of four from yesterday. I am very sorry to report that, in the past 24 hours, a further 71 deaths have been registered of patients who first tested positive over the previous 28 days. The total number of deaths under that daily measurement is now 5,376. Once again, I send my deepest condolences to everyone who has lost a loved one in the course the pandemic so far.
As those figures demonstrate, case numbers are still high. According to the most recent seven-day average, they stand at more than 200 per 100,000 of the population, and the pressure on the national health service continues to be severe. In short, we are still in a very precarious position.
However, all that said, we see some signs for optimism in recent days. We believe that the lockdown restrictions and the sacrifices that everyone continues to make are beginning to have an impact. Case numbers, which had been rising rapidly, appear to have stabilised and even to have declined. In the week to 14 January, there were, on average, about 1,900 confirmed new cases per day, which was an 18 per cent reduction on the previous week. Test positivity has also declined slightly, as has the number of cases per 100,000 of the population. The new, faster-spreading variant is now the dominant one that is circulating in Scotland, but the proportion of new cases with the S-gene dropout that is indicative of the new variant appears to have stabilised at about two thirds.
All of that is encouraging and is a signal that the lockdown restrictions are working even against the faster-spreading variant. However, it is important first to be cautious. We need those trends to continue in order to be more certain that this phase of the epidemic is on a downward trajectory. Secondly, we need to be realistic that any improvement that we are seeing at this stage is down to the fact that we are staying at home and reducing our interactions. Any relaxation of lockdown while case numbers remain very high—even though they might be declining—could quickly send the situation into reverse, especially as the faster-spreading variant is now dominant. That would further accelerate and intensify pressure on the NHS.
As we have learned throughout the pandemic, the incubation period and the infectious path of the virus mean that pressure on the NHS—in the numbers of those who are being hospitalised and who require intensive care—continues to increase for a period even after case numbers start to decline. The pressure on the NHS is already acute. As of today, just under 2,000 Covid patients are in our hospitals, which is about 30 per cent more than at the peak of the first wave, last April, and means that about 80 per cent of the NHS Covid surge capacity is being used. The number of Covid patients who are in intensive care remains below the peak of the first wave, but it has increased by more than 90 per cent since the turn of the year.
When we take account of Covid and non-Covid patients, about 260 patients in total are in intensive care beds across Scotland, which compares with a normal intensive care unit capacity of about 170. The pressure that the NHS faces right now is real and severe, and it is, of course, having a significant consequential impact on non-Covid elective care. The number of new cases in the past couple of weeks also means that the pressure is almost certain to rise for a further period. All of that means that we cannot afford to see the rate of infections start to rise again, which it could all too easily do from such a high baseline if we started to interact with one another more than we are doing now.
For all those reasons, the Cabinet decided this morning to maintain the restrictions that are in place. That means that the lockdown restrictions—including the strict stay-at-home requirement—will remain in place across mainland Scotland and some island communities until at least the middle of February. The Cabinet will review the situation again on 2 February.
I will cover two specific issues in a bit more detail. The first is a specific local change that we decided this morning to make. There is a significant outbreak of Covid on the island of Barra, which is part of the Western Isles. As of yesterday, there had been 39 confirmed positive cases, and more than 10 per cent of Barra’s population had been required to self-isolate. There is a significant concern that, without additional measures, the outbreak could spread more widely across the Western Isles, and there is concern about the potential impact on care home and clinical services.
For those reasons, the national incident management team has recommended and the Cabinet has decided—in consultation with the local authority and the local health board—that Barra and Vatersay, which is connected to Barra by a causeway, should move from level 3 to level 4 at midnight tonight. That means that the same lockdown restrictions as are in place on mainland Scotland—including the requirement to stay at home except for essential purposes—will apply there, too. The change, which we will keep under review, applies only to Barra and Vatersay and not, at this stage, to the Western Isles more generally. All affected businesses—including hospitality and non-essential retail, which will require to close—will be eligible for business support. As the outbreak comes under control, which we hope will happen relatively soon, we will consider how quickly Barra and Vatersay can move back to level 3.
The second aspect of the restrictions that I want to talk about is of nationwide and significant interest and relates to our schools and nurseries. School buildings and nurseries have been closed to most children since the start of term and we indicated previously that the earliest possible date for a full return to school premises was 1 February. Getting children back to normal schooling as soon as possible is a priority for us all.
I know how much work teachers, school leaders and other staff are doing to support home learning and I am very grateful to them for that, but I also know how challenging and stressful this situation is for families. Above all, I understand how difficult, distressing and damaging it is for children and young people to have their education and their normal interactions with friends so disrupted. However, our reluctant judgment is that, at this stage, community transmission of the virus is too high—and is likely to remain so for the next period—to allow a safe return to school on 1 February. Therefore, the Cabinet decided today that, except for vulnerable children and children of key workers, school and nursery premises will remain closed until mid-February. We will review the situation again on 2 February and I hope that then, we will be able to set out a firmer timetable for getting children back to school.
I can say this today: if it is at all possible—as I very much hope it will be—to begin even a phased return to in-school learning in mid-February, we will do that. However, I also have to be straight with families and say that it is simply too early to be sure whether and to what extent that will be possible. I will update Parliament again as soon as we have completed the review, taking advice from our clinical advisers, on 2 February.
Although I do not imagine that anything that I have said today will have been unexpected, that does not make it any less difficult for all of us—individuals and businesses—to live with the restrictions for a further period. I continue to be very grateful to people across the country for their patience and resilience in the face of this extraordinary challenge. The fact is that, for now, the restrictions remain necessary. Staying at home is essential to protect the NHS and save lives.
However, important though the lockdown is at this stage, I know the damage that it does. That is why the other aspects of our overall effort to control Covid and find a path back to greater normality are also vital. I want to touch briefly on three strands of that wider approach. The first is border control. Suppressing the virus within our own borders is our most immediate challenge. However, as we do that, it is also important to reduce the risk of new cases coming into the country from elsewhere. That is all the more essential as the virus mutates and new variants emerge.
For example, the new variant that has emerged in Brazil, and which is causing concern, has already resulted in the four United Kingdom nations imposing a travel ban on a number of countries. As a result of a more general concern about the importation of the virus, other new travel restrictions are also now in effect. All travel corridors have been suspended, which means that, with some limited sectoral exceptions, everyone arriving in Scotland now has to isolate for 10 days, no matter what country they are coming from. In addition, anyone travelling here must test negative for Covid no more than 72 hours before arrival.
We will continue to assess what further restrictions are needed, and how they should be enforced, so that we can manage the risk of importing new Covid cases as well as we possibly can. However, the strong advice—reinforced in law—is that no one should be travelling at all just now, either within Scotland or to and from the country, unless it is absolutely essential. Restricting travel continues to be a regrettable but vital part of our overall effort to control Covid and, to be clear, it is likely to remain so for some time yet.
Secondly, we are continuing to expand the use of testing within Scotland, including the more widespread use of asymptomatic testing. The health secretary announced on Friday the start of asymptomatic testing for all care-at-home workers. We are also further increasing our fleet of mobile testing units. The mobile units will soon be capable of serving up to 84 different communities at any one time. Shortly, in partnership with local authorities, we will set out our plans for large-scale community testing of people without symptoms. That will build on, and take account of the learning from, the pilots conducted before Christmas.
All these measures are important and will continue to be so in the months ahead. However, nothing is more important right now than the continued roll-out of vaccines. The vaccination programme is progressing well and is picking up pace. We are now vaccinating more than 100,000 people a week. That number will increase progressively from here on and, assuming that we receive the supplies that we expect, we are on track to be vaccinating 400,000 people a week by the end of February.
I must stress that the figures that I am about to give, to share a sense of progress so far, are estimates based on management information. Official detailed statistics will continue to be published weekly, in addition to the overall figure that we publish daily. As of today, I can report that more than 90 per cent of care home residents—the top priority group—have now received their first dose of vaccine. Indeed, a number of health boards have now given the first dose of vaccine to 100 per cent of their care home residents. In addition, more than 70 per cent of care home staff have had their first dose of the vaccine, and more than 70 per cent of all front-line health and care workers have also received their first dose.
We made a deliberate decision, in line with the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation’s advice, to focus first on elderly care home residents, because we know that they have the greatest vulnerability to becoming ill and dying from the virus. We have seen that very painful reality in recent months. Consequently, ensuring that that group benefits from the protection of the vaccine as quickly as possible is likely to have the biggest and most immediate impact on saving lives.
For obvious reasons, vaccinating in care homes is more time consuming and labour intensive than doing so in the community. That is why, at this stage, overall figures are lower than they are in England, where more over-80s generally but a lower proportion of care home residents have so far received the vaccine. However, our pace of progress in the over-80s group is also now picking up. We estimate that between 15 and 20 per cent have already had the first dose, and we are on track for all over-80s and everyone else in JCVI groups 1 and 2 to have been offered the first dose by the start of February.
By the middle of February, we expect to have completed first doses for all over-70s and all those who are deemed to be clinically extremely vulnerable. People in those groups will start to receive appointments for February in the coming days. We then aim to complete first doses for everyone who is over 65 by the start of March, and to give first doses to everyone on the JCVI priority list by early May.
That means that, in about three months’ time, approximately 3 million people in total will have received at least the first dose of the vaccine—that is, of course, the majority of our adult population and includes everyone over the age of 50 and many younger people with an underlying health condition. The rest of the adult population will follow after that just as quickly as supplies allow.
I am well aware of how much understandable and legitimate interest there is in the vaccination programme. It is the biggest and, undoubtedly, the most significant logistical operation in Scotland’s post-war history. The Scottish Government will provide Parliament and, of course, the public with regular detailed updates on progress.
However, although there is no doubt that vaccines give us real hope for the future and will help us significantly on the path back to greater normality, it is important at this stage to add a note of perspective. The vaccination programme across the UK is focusing initially and rightly, on the JCVI’s advice, on those who are most vulnerable. That means that it is unlikely to have a significant impact in the immediate future on overall population-wide case numbers. That, we hope, will come later. However, we expect that vaccination will have an earlier impact in reducing the burden of severe illness and death. I am sure that everyone will agree just how important that will be.
My second point of perspective is that experts cannot yet tell us whether, or to what extent, the vaccines stop transmission of the virus. We know that they alleviate the burden of serious illness, which is extremely important, but we do not yet know whether they stop us getting and passing on the virus. That means that certainly for now—and, possibly, for some time to come—there will be a continued need for all of us to play our part in suppressing transmission in the ways that we have been doing for the past few months. Obviously, I hope that that will not entail the strictest form of lockdown for too much longer, but some mitigations—for example, physical distancing, hygiene measures, face coverings and possibly travel limitations—are likely to be necessary for some time yet.
All of what I have just said is an essential part of being open and transparent with the public about the challenge that we, in common with the UK and other countries, still face. However, none of it should detract from the fact that now, more so than at any time since the start of the pandemic, we have hope of a path to much greater domestic normality, which we all crave. For now, progressing along that path requires continued discipline and sacrifice from all of us. Lockdown, including the stay-at-home requirement, however tough it is—and it is really tough—continues to be necessary, so I am asking everyone to please stick to the letter and the spirit of the lockdown rules.
We should not be thinking in terms of the maximum interactions we can have without breaking the rules. Instead, we should all be thinking every day about how we can reduce our interactions as far as we can to remove as many opportunities as possible for the virus to spread. Therefore, except for genuinely essential purposes, please continue to stay at home. Please—and this is vital—do not have people from other households in your house and do not go into theirs.
Work from home whenever possible, and remember that, if you are an employer, you have a legal duty to support your employees to work from home as far as possible. Follow the FACTS advice at all times when you are out and about.
That is how we best look after each other. It is how we can help our health and care workers manage the pressure that they currently face, and avoid adding to it, and it is how we continue to slow down the virus while the vaccines get on with doing their work. I know that it feels hard. I know that it is hard, but I also know that it is working. It is already saving lives. So please stick with it.
Stay at home. Protect the NHS. Save lives.