At the outset of the statement, I confirm that there will be no immediate changes to the Covid levels of protection that currently apply to different parts of Scotland. I will provide a general update on the state of the pandemic and I will, of course, address any questions that members have.
First, I will report on today’s statistics. The total number of positive cases reported yesterday was 695, which is 5 per cent of the total number of tests, and the number of confirmed cases in Scotland is now 241,864. There are currently 121 people in hospital with Covid-19, which is one fewer than was announced yesterday, and 12 people are in intensive care, which is the same number as was announced yesterday. I am pleased to report that no deaths were reported yesterday, which means that the total number of deaths registered under the daily definition remains 7,677. Once again, I send my deepest condolences to all those who have lost a loved one.
I turn now to the vaccination programme. It is exactly six months since the first Covid vaccine was administered in Scotland, and progress since then has been remarkable. As of 7.30 this morning, 3,403,866 people in Scotland had received their first dose of the vaccine. That is an increase of 17,545 since yesterday’s announcement and, most important, it means that almost exactly three quarters of Scotland’s adult population has now received a first dose.
In addition, 30,944 people received a second dose yesterday, which brings the total number of second doses administered to 2,282,203. That means that more than half of the adult population is now fully vaccinated with two doses. Those are significant and heartening milestones, and, as ever, I want to thank everyone involved in delivering the vaccination programme across the country.
Last week, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency approved the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for use among 12 to 15-year-olds. That is good news, as it indicates that that particular vaccine is safe for use in children of that age. The Scottish Government is now awaiting advice from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation on the vaccination of children in that age group. I am sure that everybody agrees that it is vital that we continue to rely on expert advice in all our vaccination decisions. Vaccination may well be an important way of giving children greater protection, minimising any further disruption to schooling and further reducing community transmission of Covid. So, I confirm that, if the JCVI recommends the use of the vaccine for children aged 12 and over, we will move as quickly as is practicably possible to implement its advice.
However, for the moment, we continue to focus on vaccinating all adults as quickly as possible. That remains crucial in the race that we are in between the virus and the vaccine. As today’s figures show, case numbers in Scotland continue to rise. In the past week, in fact, they have increased by approximately 50 per cent. Over the past seven days, there has been a net increase of 5,475 new cases, which is a rise from 3,728 over the seven days prior to that.
That will partly be a consequence of restrictions easing—it is always the case, as we have always made clear, that, as we start interacting more, the virus has more opportunities to spread—but the recent rise is also being driven by the more transmissible delta variant, which now accounts for the majority of all new reported cases. Although case numbers are rising, the key question is the extent to which vaccination is weakening the link between an increase in new cases and an increase in serious health harms. We continue to assess that data closely, and, at this stage, it is important to be clear that we remain optimistic that vaccination will allow us to move progressively to a less restrictive way of dealing with Covid.
We have evidence that having two doses of vaccine gives protection against serious illness, even with the new delta variant. As I confirmed earlier, more than half of the adult population in Scotland has had two doses, including more than 90 per cent of people aged over 60 and more than 80 per cent of those who are over 50. They are the age groups in which people are most at risk of falling seriously ill if they get the virus.
As I said last week, vaccination appears to be reducing the proportion of people who require hospital treatment as a result of Covid. At the start of the year, about 10 per cent of new Covid cases were admitted to hospital; in May, that figure was 5 per cent. However, it is important that we continue to monitor the data so that the full impact of the delta variant can be properly assessed.
There is also encouraging evidence that the time that people spend in hospital is reducing. When we take all of that into account, as we all hoped, vaccination might well be giving us more scope to ease restrictions and therefore reduce the social, economic and wider health harms that the response to the virus so far has caused.
All those signs are positive, but continued caution is needed—especially while a significant proportion of the population has not yet had both doses and so remains more vulnerable to becoming ill and needing hospital treatment. The number of people in hospital might not be rising as quickly as the number of new cases, but, even so, it has roughly doubled in the past month. If case numbers continue to rise, that trend will continue.
On average, people might be spending less time in hospital, but it is still the case that, if someone ends up in hospital because of Covid, the virus has made them seriously unwell. Some people, such as those who suffer from long Covid, can be seriously ill without ever having to go to hospital.
In summary, our position is still fragile. Case numbers are higher than we would like. The virus still causes serious health harm, and it still has the potential to put pressure on our health service. That is why we must continue to assess the data carefully as we make decisions about whether and when to ease restrictions further.
On the upside—I stress that it is a significant upside—the vaccines appear to be doing their job, which should give us all firm grounds for optimism. That is why our top priority, and a key consideration in our future decisions, remains the speed at which we can vaccinate people, so that as many as possible get the added protection against serious illness as quickly as possible.
The vaccines offer us hope for the future, but it remains the case that we all have a role to play in getting us back to normal, so I will finish by reiterating the three key requests that are being made of all of us. First, please get tested regularly. Free lateral flow tests are available through the NHS Inform website so that you can take a test twice a week, which I strongly encourage everyone to do. Taking a test tells us whether we might have the virus, even if we do not have the symptoms. If you test positive, please self-isolate and get the lateral flow result confirmed through a polymerase chain reaction test—that is vital. The more we all do tests, the more cases we will find and the more we will break chains of transmission.
Secondly, get vaccinated when you are invited to do so, and please attend for both doses. If you need to rearrange an appointment, if you think that you should have had an invitation by now and want to check that, or if you are aged 18 to 29 and have not yet registered for your appointment to make sure that all your details are up to date, please go to the vaccinations section of the NHS Inform website.
Getting vaccinated is in our own best interests—whatever age we are, vaccination makes it less likely that we will become seriously ill from Covid. Getting vaccinated also helps us to protect one another. It is likely to be the single most important thing that most of us will do this year to protect our family, friends and neighbours, so please, when it is your turn, roll up your sleeve and get the jags.
Finally, please continue to stick to the rules where you live and follow all the public health advice. I know that that becomes more and more difficult as time goes on and that, as restrictions ease—bit by bit—and we try to get back to normal, any apparent anomalies in the rules and advice can be frustrating. We are trying to strike the best and most appropriate balance overall, but I readily concede that it is not perfect.
However, there are some principles that we can and should all follow. People should meet outdoors as much as possible. No environment is ever entirely risk free in any sense, but, in relation to Covid, meeting people outdoors poses less risk than meeting indoors. If you are meeting others indoors, please stick to the limits and make sure the room is as well ventilated as possible. Please continue to follow advice on physical distancing, hand washing and face coverings. We all long to see the back of those mitigations, but, for now, basic measures to prevent transmission are really important and effective against all variants of the virus.
In summary, please get tested regularly, get vaccinated when you are asked to do so and continue to follow the public health guidance. If we all do that, we will help to keep the virus under control while the vaccination programme continues to do its work. That will help to keep us and others safe, and it will maximise the opportunity for a summer of fewer restrictions and much greater freedom.