I will give an update on the latest Covid situation. As part of that I will recap on decisions made at the end of last week in relation to international travel. I will also announce some additional support to help businesses improve the ventilation of their premises, and I will give an update on the introduction of the vaccine certification scheme, following a discussion at Cabinet this morning.
First, I will cover today’s statistics. There were 2,370 positive cases reported yesterday, which was 10.6 per cent of the tests carried out; 1,027 people are currently in hospital with Covid, which is four more than yesterday; and 73 people are receiving intensive care, which is three fewer than yesterday.
Sadly, a further 16 deaths have been reported over the past 24 hours, which takes the total number of deaths registered under the daily definition to 8,551. The number of deaths reported in recent days is a reminder of the grief that the virus continues to cause families across the country. Again, I send my condolences to everyone who has lost a loved one.
On a more positive note, the vaccination programme continues to make very good progress. Over the weekend, the milestone of 8 million vaccinations in Scotland was reached. As of this morning, 4,185,574 people have received a first dose, and 3,832,498 have now had both doses. In total, 84 per cent of the over-16 population is now fully vaccinated, with two doses. That includes 96 per cent of the over-40s, 75 per cent of 30 to 39-year olds and 63 per cent of 18 to 29-year olds. In addition, 71 per cent of 16 and 17-year-olds have had a first dose, and it is important to remember that, at this stage, only a single dose is recommended for that age group.
Those are exceptionally high uptake rates but, as we go into winter, we are obviously keen to push them even higher—and I will return to that point later.
We are now implementing the next stages of the programme. Vaccinations for 12 to 15-year-olds started last week at drop-in clinics. Appointment letters are being sent out from this week to everyone in that age group who has not already been vaccinated. I take the opportunity to encourage all 12 to 15-year-olds, and their parents and carers, to read the online information about vaccination so that informed decisions can be taken. If there are questions or concerns, I ask that people please raise them with vaccinators when attending appointments.
The programme of booster vaccinations is now under way in line with the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation advice. Care home residents started getting booster jags last week, and from this week, those who are over 70 years of age and those on the highest risk list will also start to get booster jags. People in those groups will be notified of appointments by general practitioners or by letter. People who are on the highest risk list who are immunosuppressed or immunocompromised are being invited separately for a third dose.
The figures that have been reported over the past week show that, although Covid cases remain at a high level, they continue to fall. To put current case numbers into context, in the five weeks between 2 August and 6 September, the increase in average daily cases was more than fivefold, from an average of 1,115 new cases a day to 6,438. Since then, average daily cases have halved to 3,119 new cases a day. The numbers now are below the previous peak of early July. Indeed, in the past week alone, there has been a fall of almost one fifth. The steepest falls—of more than a quarter—have been in the 15 to 19 and 20 to 24 age groups. However, it is important to note that there have been significant declines across all age groups.
It is extremely positive that the overall reduction in cases has happened without the need to reintroduce any lockdown restrictions, which we were, and are, all keen to avoid. We consider that the fall in cases is being driven by a number of factors. A key one is likely to be the increasing level of immunity, which is now relatively high in Scotland. That comes mainly from vaccination, to some extent from infection with the virus, and, in some cases, from both.
I return to my earlier point about the need to drive the already high vaccine uptake rates even higher. The current downward trajectory of cases underlines again the vital importance of people getting vaccinated, if they are eligible. That includes taking up the opportunity of a booster jag when it is offered. Undoubtedly, getting vaccinated remains the single most important thing that any of us can do to help to keep cases under control.
However, other factors are also likely to have contributed to the fall in cases. They include the performance and hard work of those in test and protect, and all the considerable efforts that have been made by individuals, businesses and other organisations to step up compliance with the basic mitigation measures that remain in place. I am grateful to everyone who has taken extra care in recent weeks in an attempt to halt and reverse the spike in cases, including students and staff at our colleges and universities.
This time last year, we were experiencing a rapid increase in Covid cases—albeit from a much lower base level than is currently the case—which was, at least in part, down to the start of the new university term. However, so far this year, although it is still early in the new term, there has not been an increase in cases coinciding with the return of universities. Indeed, at this stage, it could tentatively be argued that the reverse is true. As I said earlier, cases in the 15 to 24-year-old age groups, which include many students, have actually been falling. That will be due in part to the impact of vaccination; however, I also know how much effort has gone into making student campuses and accommodation as safe as possible, and I am deeply grateful for all those efforts.
In the weeks ahead, cabinet secretaries will continue to engage with different sectors to ensure that we are working together to support strong compliance with key mitigations such as face coverings, hand hygiene, good ventilation and, where possible, continued home working.
The clear evidence of recent weeks suggests that those collective efforts are making a significant difference. If we stick with it, I am hopeful that we will keep a downward pressure on cases as we head into the winter period. I cannot stress enough how vital that is. It is extremely positive that case numbers have fallen significantly, but they remain more than two and a half times higher than they were in early August.
As we move further into autumn and winter, and as people meet indoors for longer periods, there remains a risk that the number of cases could rise again. Of course, hospital admissions and occupancy are already at high levels.
That said, in the past week, we have also seen a slight but welcome reduction in the number of Covid patients in hospital, from 1,107 to 1,027. That is in line with our expectations—we know that the number of people in hospital with Covid usually starts to fall about two weeks after the number of new cases begins to fall.
With the number of cases having fallen further, we would hope and expect that the direct Covid pressure on the national health service will ease somewhat, although we expect that the service will remain under significant pressure for some time to come. We hope that the number of people dying from Covid will start to reduce, too.
However, some context is necessary. Although the slight slowdown in hospital admissions is welcome, the number of patients in hospital with Covid today—1,027—is still three times as high as it was in late August. Similarly, although there has been a gradual decline in the number of patients with Covid who require intensive care, intensive care unit occupancy is still far higher than it was in late August.
It is worth highlighting that the hospital figures that we report daily represent the total number of people who first tested positive for Covid while in hospital or in the 14 days prior to their admission. The figures have always included people who, although they have Covid, were admitted to hospital for other reasons.
I can advise Parliament that, tomorrow, Public Health Scotland will publish a more detailed analysis that will seek to quantify those admitted to hospital not just with Covid but because of Covid. I am sure that that will be of interest to many. However, any analysis makes it clear that the number of people in hospital with or because of Covid is still too high, and that is putting immense pressure on the national health service.
NHS staff are currently trying to care for hundreds of Covid admissions every week while also dealing with the backlog that has built up during the pandemic and preparing for winter. That is exhausting and stressful for them, and I know that we are all deeply grateful to each and every one of them.
Therefore, it is important to emphasise again that, by all of us behaving in ways that can get and keep Covid cases under control, we are not simply protecting ourselves and those around us but helping those who work so hard in our NHS and protecting their capacity to provide care and treatment to everyone who needs it.
I want to give an update on three further issues. First, last Friday, we confirmed changes to the rules on international travel. From 4 October, the blanket requirement for pre-departure tests for people travelling into Scotland will be removed. People who have been fully vaccinated or who are under the age of 18 will no longer need to provide a pre-departure test result if they are coming from countries that are not on the red list. We also hope to align our policy on post-arrival testing with that of England, although United Kingdom-wide details are still being finalised. As I indicated last week, we are making the changes to the travel testing rules with some reluctance, as we have a concern that the removal of testing requirements could hamper efforts to detect new variants.
We have also considered—as I said last week we would—the practical consequences of not having an aligned UK-wide position. In particular, we have to be realistic about the fact that people who live in Scotland could decide to return here via airports in England if different rules are in place for Scottish airports. The result of that would be disadvantage to our aviation and travel sector without any significant public health advantage. We must be pragmatic. However, we will not be complacent. I can confirm that we are working with Public Health Scotland to develop additional surveillance safeguards to guard against the risk of new variants. We will set out further details in due course, but I can confirm now that the arrangements will not incur costs for travellers.
The second point on which I want to give an update is ventilation. It is now clear and accepted that good ventilation is an important mitigation against the risk of Covid transmission. Last month, we established an expert group to make recommendations on improving ventilation. I am very grateful to the group, which is chaired by Professor Tim Sharpe from the University of Strathclyde, for all its work so far. In response to the group’s initial recommendations, I can confirm today that we will allocate up to £25 million of funding to help small and medium-sized enterprises to improve ventilation. That support, which will include grants, will help those businesses to make necessary adjustments to their premises including, for example, the installation of carbon dioxide monitors or alterations to windows and vents.
The fund, which we expect to start making payments in November, will initially target higher-risk sectors in which people spend significant amounts of time in close proximity to each other, such as hospitality and leisure. We will set out more details of the eligibility criteria and the application process over the next few weeks. However, I hope that the funding package will help many small and medium-sized businesses to make indoor settings safer, especially through the winter months.
The final issue that I want to give an update on is the vaccination certification scheme. Last week, we set out further details of how the scheme will operate, and I can confirm that, later today, we will publish further detailed guidance for businesses, which will demonstrate the proportionate and commonsense approach that we are asking businesses to take. I would encourage businesses to familiarise themselves with the guidance, which will assist them in making the necessary preparations for the scheme coming into force.
I can also confirm that the introduction of certification means that we are able to remove the capacity limits and the associated exemption process that have been in place for stadia and live events. I know that that will be welcomed by event planners and local authorities. The certification scheme will apply, as previously indicated, to late-night venues that are open after midnight with alcohol, music and dancing; to live indoor unseated events of more than 500 people; to live outdoor unseated events of more than 4,000 people; and to any event of more than 10,000 people.
That means that, once the scheme starts, anyone over the age of 18 who wants to go to a large event or a late-night venue will be required to provide evidence that they are fully vaccinated or evidence that they are exempt. To facilitate that, the NHS Covid status app will go live on Thursday. It will provide a digital record of a user’s vaccination status, including a QR code for each vaccination a person has received. It is already possible for any of us to request a paper copy of our vaccination record or to download a PDF from the NHS Inform website.
We have continued to engage with businesses as we have developed the detail of the certification scheme. I understand that many businesses have concerns about certification, and I am grateful to all those that have nevertheless engaged in the discussions so constructively. The Government remains of the view that a targeted certification scheme has a part to play in driving vaccination rates up as high as possible and in providing an additional layer of protection over the winter months as we seek to achieve the potentially difficult task of keeping Covid under control while keeping our economy fully open. Indeed, many other countries are already demonstrating the value of vaccination certification.
It is for those reasons that the Cabinet decided this morning to proceed with the laying of the regulations that will bring such a scheme into operation. However, as I have said previously, we are also determined to listen to and, as far as possible, to respond to the reasonable concerns of business, so that the introduction and practical implementation of the scheme are as smooth as possible.
I confirm that Cabinet this morning agreed a change to our original plans for the scheme’s commencement. The new staged approach that we are proposing is designed to help businesses to adapt to the requirement that the scheme will place on them and to give them a period during which they can operationalise and test their arrangements in practice. I can therefore confirm that, after the legal obligation comes into force at 5 am on Friday this week, we intend to allow a further period of slightly more than two weeks, until 18 October, before any business could face enforcement action for non-compliance. That period—in effect, a grace period—will allow businesses to test, adapt and build confidence in the practical arrangements that they will need to put in place to be compliant with the scheme.
As I said, the Government is persuaded that a vaccination certification scheme will help us to mitigate the risk that the virus poses to all of us over the winter. That is why we intend to proceed with it. However, the pragmatic compromise that I have just outlined in relation to a staged introduction of the scheme demonstrates, I hope, that we are listening to business about the practical challenges that they face and that we are determined to work with them to overcome those.
To conclude, as we move for the first time into a winter with Covid circulating but without any significant restrictions in place, we are, I am pleased to say, in a much better position than we might have hoped for just a few weeks ago.
The number of cases has halved in the past three weeks, and we hope that that will be followed by an easing of at least the direct Covid pressure on the national health service. Nevertheless, there is no room for complacency about the potential impact that we might face this winter. The efforts that have been made by so many over the past month to step up compliance with mitigations and to drive up vaccination rates seem to be working. We have, collectively, halted the surge and brought case numbers down.
However—and this is always the more difficult message—the number of cases is still too high for comfort, so it is vital that we do not let up. We must maintain the progress of the past few weeks, and, as ever, that has to be a collective endeavour. All of us have a part to play in keeping transmission under control. Therefore, I will close, as usual, with a reminder of the three key things that we can all do to help protect ourselves and each other.
First, please get vaccinated if you are eligible and have not yet done so. That remains the single most important thing that any of us can do. Secondly, please test regularly with lateral flow devices. They can be ordered through the NHS Inform website or collected from a local test site or pharmacy. If you test positive, are identified as a close contact or have symptoms of the virus, please self-isolate and book a polymerase chain reaction test.
Thirdly, please comply with the mitigations that are still in place. Wear face coverings in indoor public places such as shops and public transport and when moving about in hospitality settings. Meet outdoors if you can. I know that that will get harder as we move into autumn and winter, but outdoor meetings are still safer. When meeting indoors, open windows. Keep a safe distance from people in other households, especially indoors. Wash hands and surfaces thoroughly.
All those precautions really matter. They will help to keep you and those around you safer. As we can see from the data that I have reported today, they are making a difference. Let us all stick with it and hope to get the number of cases down even further.