Housing is a really good example. There are a number of ways in which we could increase housing supply quickly, but pension funds taking the lead on that will not help in the short term because they are not set up to do it at the moment.
The Smith commission is giving increased borrowing powers but I do not know where the schedule of increased borrowing powers sits. However, it could be possible for the Government to borrow money and, using public and other land, perhaps in a joint venture with the private sector, build housing at scale with a view to selling it to a pension fund-led company at some stage in the future.
Rather than waiting for the pension funds to develop the capability, we could develop a product that could be sold to pension funds. That could be done on a rolling basis. However, one of the things that stops that at the moment is the Scottish Government’s limited borrowing powers.
The current rate of borrowing for the Scottish Government is about 2.4 or 2.5 per cent over about 20 years, and mid-market rent housing could be done very viably at that sort of cost of finance. If that was sold to a pension fund, its interest would probably be in having a higher rate of return than 2.4 per cent, because that represents a sovereign cost of borrowing. Nevertheless, it could still be viable. It might be necessary to have a mix of private rent and mid-market rent in such a development—which is probably quite a good thing to do anyway—to make it all stack up financially.
There are things that we could do to increase housing supply. Alex Rowley said that the discussion was quite complex. Housing is probably one of the most simple things. The variables on one side are the cost of land, the cost of building the house and the cost of finance. The rent or sale is the income on the other side.
The Government has an advantage in that it has a low cost of finance. Therefore, one of the things that we have done in the national housing trust is to use local authority borrowing cost of finance to make mid-market rent viable without any direct subsidy. That shows what can be done. With wider borrowing powers, more could happen in that regard.
10:45
I am not advocating either Government borrowing or PPP—I do not have any preference for either—but, in the NPD programme, £1.8 billion-worth of projects have reached financial close so far, and almost half the finance for that has come from pension funds and insurance companies. There are people investing institutional money into Scotland right now. A lot of it has come from outwith Scotland, in terms of where the funds are headquartered, but it is very hard to trace back to exactly where the pension funds are invested and to who invests in them.
That makes the point for me. If the right product is there, the pension funds will step up and put money in. Part of the challenge with housing is creating that product to invest in.